Weekly Market Analysis 9 July

AUDUSD

· Fundamental Outlook: The Australian dollar is being weighed down by several factors, including rising interest rates in the United States, weak commodity prices, and political uncertainty in Australia. The US dollar, on the other hand, is being supported by strong economic data and hawkish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

· Technical Outlook: The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6691 after falling from a high of 0.6898. The near-term outlook is bearish as the price is now moving below the 20-period moving average, targeting the support level at 0.6654. However, a break above 0.6716 would turn the bias back to the upside.

· Overall Outlook: The AUD/USD pair is likely to remain under pressure in the near term. However, a break above 0.6716 could signal a short-term rebound. The longer-term outlook for the pair is bearish, as the US dollar is expected to continue to strengthen.

Key Levels

· Resistance: 0.6716, 0.6757

· Support: 0.6654, 0.6596

EURUSD

· Fundamental Outlook: The euro is being weighed down by several factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation in the eurozone, and the European Central Bank's (ECB) relatively dovish monetary policy stance. The US dollar, on the other hand, is being supported by strong economic data and hawkish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

· Technical Outlook: The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.0967, after falling from a high of 1.1100 and then rising back higher after reaching the support level at 1.0834. The near-term outlook suggests consolidation, with the pair expected to retest the resistance level at 1.0995 in the coming days. However, if the pair breaks below 1.0914, the bias will shift back to the downside.

· Overall Outlook: The EUR/USD pair is likely to remain under pressure in the near term. However, a break above 1.1000 could signal a short-term rebound. The longer-term outlook for the pair is bearish, as the US dollar is expected to continue to strengthen.

Key Levels

· Resistance: 1.0995, 1.1068

· Support: 1.0914, 1.0834

GBPUSD

· Fundamental Outlook: The pound is being supported by a number of factors, including the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish monetary policy stance, strong economic data from the UK, and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the future of Brexit. The US dollar, on the other hand, is being weighed down by concerns about the global economy and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) plans to raise interest rates.

· Technical Outlook: The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.2838, following an increase from a low of 1.2589 last week. The near-term outlook suggests a bullish trend, as the pair is expected to test the resistance level at 1.2881 in the coming days. However, if the pair breaks below 1.2685, the bias would shift back to the downside.

· Overall Outlook: The GBP/USD pair is likely to remain in an uptrend in the near term. However, a break below 1.2685 could signal a short-term pullback. The longer-term outlook for the pair is bullish, as the BoE is expected to continue to raise interest rates and the UK economy is expected to grow at a faster pace than the US economy.

Key Levels

· Resistance: 1.2881, 1.2999

· Support: 1.2782, 1.2685

USDJPY

· Fundamental Outlook: The US dollar is being supported by a few factors, including strong economic data from the United States, hawkish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the global economy. The Japanese yen, on the other hand, is being weighed down by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) dovish monetary policy stance and the country's trade deficit.

· Technical Outlook: The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 142.114, following an increase from a low of 139.45 last week. The near-term outlook suggests a bullish trend, as the pair is expected to retest the resistance level at 143.00 in the coming days. However, if the pair breaks below 140.89, the bias would shift back to the downside.

· Overall Outlook: The USDJPY pair is likely to remain in an uptrend in the near term. However, a break below 140.89 could signal a short-term pullback. The longer-term outlook for the pair is bullish, as the US dollar is expected to continue to strengthen and the BoJ is expected to maintain its dovish policy stance.

Key Levels

· Resistance: 143.00, 144.94

· Support: 140.89, 138.73

S&P500

· Fundamental Outlook: The S&P 500 is being supported by several factors, including strong economic data from the United States, hawkish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the global economy. However, there are also some risks to the index, such as the ongoing war in Ukraine and the rising inflation rate.

· Technical Outlook: The S&P 500 is currently trading at 4,401.10, following a peak of 4,458 last week. The near-term outlook suggests a bullish trend, as the index is expected to test the resistance level at 4,455 in the coming days. However, if the index breaks below 4,340, the bias would shift back to the downside.

· Overall Outlook: The S&P 500 is likely to remain in an uptrend in the near term. However, a break below 4,340 could signal a short-term pullback. The longer-term outlook for the index is positive, as the US economy is expected to continue to grow, and the Fed is expected to continue to raise interest rates.

Key Levels

· Resistance: 4,420, 4,455

· Support: 4,385, 4,340

U30USD (Dow Jones)

· Fundamental Outlook: The U30USD (DJ) is being weighed down by a number of factors, including concerns about the global economy and the ongoing war in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has disrupted supply chains and led to higher inflation, which have weighed on the global economy.

· Technical Outlook: The U30USD (DJ) is currently trading at 33,750, following a peak of 34,470 last week. The near-term outlook suggests a bearish trend, as the index is expected to test the support level at 33,308 in the coming days. However, if the index breaks above 34,470, the bias would shift back to the upside.

· Overall Outlook: The U30USD (DJ) is likely to remain volatile in the near term. However, the longer-term outlook for U30USD (DJ) is positive, as the US economy is expected to continue to grow and corporate earnings are expected to increase.

Key Levels

· Resistance: 34,127, 34,470

· Support: 33,660, 33,308

NAS100

· Fundamental Outlook: The NAS100 is being weighed down by several factors, including concerns about the global economy and the ongoing war in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has disrupted supply chains and led to higher inflation, which have weighed on the global economy.

· Technical Outlook: The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) is currently trading at 15,057, following a peak of closing at 15,276 last week. The near-term outlook suggests a bearish trend, as the index is expected to test the support level at 15,000 in the coming days. However, if the index breaks above 15,248, the bias would shift back to the upside.

· Overall Outlook: The NAS100 is likely to remain volatile in the near term. However, the longer-term outlook for the NAS100 is positive, as the US economy is expected to continue to grow and corporate earnings are expected to increase.

Key Levels

· Resistance: 15,248, 15,518

· Support: 15,000, 14,673

Gold

· Fundamental Outlook: Gold is being supported by several factors, including concerns about the global economy and the ongoing war in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has disrupted supply chains and led to higher inflation, which have weighed on the global economy. Gold is seen as a safe haven asset in times of uncertainty, so it is likely to benefit from the current economic and geopolitical environment.

· Technical Outlook: XAUUSD (gold) is currently trading at $1,925.00, following a low of $1,902 last week. The near-term outlook suggests a bullish trend, with gold expected to test the resistance level at $1,937 in the coming days. However, if the price breaks below $1,902, the bias would shift back to the downside.

· Overall Outlook: The XAUUSD is likely to remain volatile in the near term. However, the longer-term outlook for the XAUUSD is positive, as the global economy is expected to continue to grow and inflation is expected to remain elevated.

Key Levels

· Resistance: $1,937, $1,980

· Support: $1,902, $1,868

Bitcoin

· Fundamental Outlook: The BTCUST pair is being supported by a few factors, including the growing adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors and the increasing demand for Bitcoin as a store of value.

· Technical Outlook: The BTC/USD pair is currently trading at 30,328, following a peak of 31,485 last week. The near-term outlook suggests a bullish trend, as the pair is expected to test the resistance level at 30,754 in the coming days. However, if the pair breaks below 29,987, the bias would shift back to the downside.

· Overall Outlook: The BTCUST pair is likely to remain volatile in the near term. However, the longer-term outlook for the pair is positive, as Bitcoin is expected to continue to grow in popularity.

Key Levels

· Resistance: 30,754, 31,353

· Support: 29,987, 29,182

USOUSD

· Fundamental Outlook: The USOUSD is being supported by several factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and the rising demand for oil. The war in Ukraine has disrupted oil supplies from Russia, the world's second-largest oil producer. This has led to higher oil prices, which has benefited the USOUSD.

· Technical Outlook: The USO/USD pair is currently trading at $73.58, following a low of closing at $67.13 last week. The near-term outlook suggests a bullish trend, as the pair is expected to test the resistance level at $74.42 in the coming days. However, if the pair breaks below $70.00, the bias would shift back to the downside.

· Overall Outlook: The USOUSD is likely to remain volatile in the near term. However, the longer-term outlook for the fund is positive, as the global economy is expected to continue to grow and demand for oil is expected to increase.

Key Levels

· Resistance: $74.42, $77.20

· Support: $72.50, $70.10

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