5-11 复盘 —— 下周展望，轮动行情如何展开，稳扎稳打？
杨御谦 
20250511复盘
指数震荡向上，消化掉4月初的长阴线。短期锚定的是3316点的缺口，向上时降预期，回踩趋势时保持一定的积极性。波段则可参考20年2月的打法，后面会有二次回踩过程但时机没到，目前还是以震荡的态势来看。情绪端在年报落地后进入到业绩真空期，前面也反复强调过当前是试错和轮动阶段，后续会有核心方向出来。轮动行情往往是每天有不同的热点，其中有逻辑的会做反复的活跃，更适合做分歧低吸，而非局部的加强，注意这个节奏。
机器人，周五偏调整，板块本身走趋势，与指数共振。板块最近卖方挖所谓新标的比较多，包括周五盘中又在传华为机器人发布等，还是只适合低吸来潜伏。前面的外骨骼、PEEK，产业方向的丝杠、灵巧手等仍然是主要的分支。AI方向，业绩加持的CPO等仍在趋势内，新易盛、博创科技和仕佳光子等，而前一天活跃的铜缆、PCB之后也会结合消息面反复，但是追涨显然是不行的，包括题材端的压缩机，接力也是比较困难。鸿蒙，润和软件、科蓝软件等早盘拉了一波，而前一天强势的多模态+PC还是无法加强的，类似AI算力的分支，也是后面有反复的预期。
军工，周四是分歧后走高，周五是小高潮后分歧，周末的消息面也很反复，结合着板块的股性也会是反复拉扯，中航成飞、晨曦航空，成飞集成、航天长峰，七丰精工、通易航天等，后面也是结合着消息面去做急跌博弈，没必要完全绑定海外局势，更没必要讲太大的故事。化工，受到中毅达又被JG的影响整体走弱，红墙股份卡位上来，板块下周中前也会有回流的动作在。半导体，受到中芯、华虹的业绩影响承压，另外就是公募新规，业绩基准的挂钩对于科技并不友好，而更容易导向赛道、沪深300权重的配置，后面看看影响会不会延续。
按照计划以博弈为主，分时上也是高抛低吸。整体周五偏调整，仓位对应的有上升。仍是围绕着国产替代、科技、军工、北证方向为主。关于明天，指数仍在趋势内，但当前位置并不低，以中性的思维来看，分歧回落时才能积极一些。情绪端高位股是承压的，但明天延续退潮的话，后面两天是有修复预期的，题材试错的阶段会比较纠结，直到后面走出新主线，多些耐心，供参考。
回首往昔，跟随交易的账户凭借一万刀资金，成功实现五次翻仓 2 倍，而后出金，累计出金高达10万刀。上周整体还可以，后续继续加油。
我外汇百晓生，始终坚信，盈利才是衡量实力的唯一标准。我的 分析从不模棱两可，交易风格独树一帜。跟随我的节奏，一年下来，从无败绩。别人早已在财富之路上疾驰，你却还在路口犹豫是否要过红绿灯？记住，犹豫就会败北！紧跟我的步伐，财富必将滚滚而来。想找到我，中金财经号主页简介处便是你的指引。
2025年5月11日 16:30
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